Thirteen days later, on March 9, Louisiana reported its first case of covid-19. Then came another, and another. Clusters broke out in several nursing homes. The cases popping up across the state were not easily linked to each other, meaning that a galloping community spread was already underway.
A terrible realization began to dawn on residents and political leaders: The famous bonhomie of the world’s biggest free party may have helped supercharge one of the most rapid spreads of the coronavirus, which is now threatening to overwhelm Louisiana’s health-care system and potentially make the state one of the next epicenters.
“We had people from all over the world. We also had the spread of this virus, and people did not realize it was spreading,” said Rebekah Gee, a former state health secretary now on the faculty of Louisiana State University’s medical school. “So people not only caught beads, but they caught covid-19.”
As of Thursday, Louisiana had reported 2,305 cases and 83 deaths related to coronavirus — with about two-thirds of the cases and deaths in the New Orleans metro area. During the first two weeks of known infections, the virus was coursing through Louisiana at an extraordinarily rapid pace, according to an analysis by Gary Wagner, a professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. He found that the rate of growth in that period was the highest in the world.
“It seems the virus was there when crowds were around for Mardi Gras and it may have turned into a super-spreader event,” he said. “You can see what’s happening in Italy and Spain, and there is every reason to think the same events are going to happen here.”
Given the coronavirus’s nimble and exponential transmissibility, it wouldn’t have taken many cases mingling among the Mardi Gras partyers to push the state to where it is today. As few as two or three people with the coronavirus in New Orleans in late February could have engendered the current number of confirmed cases, according to a model by Susanne Straif-Bourgeois, a specialist in infectious diseases at the LSU School of Public Health. She added that there probably are many more people infected in the city than are known, because they’re not showing serious symptoms.